{
  "seed": 20261029,
  "calibration_replicates": 256,
  "evaluation_replicates": 4096,
  "metric_ids": [
    "M70",
    "M80",
    "M90",
    "M100",
    "V",
    "G"
  ],
  "coverage": {
    "input_sections": 497897,
    "modeled_sections": 497897,
    "excluded_sections": 0,
    "input_unpaired": 0,
    "numeric_invalid": 0,
    "pairing_definition": "Mesma PK administrativa e dados completos; não exige local ou quantidade de aptos iguais.",
    "stable_available": true,
    "modeled_stable_sections": 442108,
    "notes": [
      "Contagens simuladas e observadas usam o mesmo universo: nacional ou municípios reservados.",
      "Comparação administrativa agregada; não certifica a identidade individual dos eleitores.",
      "O subconjunto estável continua sendo robustez descritiva, sem substituir o pareamento básico."
    ]
  },
  "scopes": {
    "national": {
      "sections": 497897,
      "municipalities": 5571
    },
    "holdout": {
      "sections": 116503,
      "municipalities": 1098,
      "disjoint_training_municipalities": 4473
    }
  },
  "version": "absolute-lula-joint-20261029-v1",
  "status": "complete",
  "generated_display": "29/10/2026 17:57",
  "question": "absolute",
  "direction": "Todos os seis valores Lula iguais ou maiores",
  "new_simulations": 0,
  "new_model_fits": 0,
  "source_sha256": {
    "audit-redo/results.json": "927ed097b1ebcff6f4e4672f2489db8d0ba537dbcbfbc2c8548db1ad16123d5f",
    "audit-redo/simulation-draws.npz": "fbc59f65ecb70fb57ffd4f7a1606d0cb20ff0f33dfcf8f2e0d5df8a988556fae"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Evento exploratório definido após examinar os dados; não é teste confirmatório independente.",
    "O conjunto exige as seis condições na mesma réplica; faixas sobrepostas não são somadas e caudas não são multiplicadas.",
    "Referências aprendidas no segundo turno dos municípios de treino; nacional inclui treino e holdout.",
    "Válidos e comparecimento do segundo turno ficam fixos; a raridade desses totais não é avaliada.",
    "Zero excedências não determina uma probabilidade exata nem a ordem de grandeza da raridade.",
    "Frequência e IC são condicionais às referências; não são probabilidade de fraude.",
    "Ganhos líquidos não identificam quais eleitores compareceram ou migraram entre candidatos."
  ],
  "models": [
    {
      "id": "beta_binomial",
      "adequacy": {
        "pass": true,
        "municipalities": 1098,
        "coverage90": 0.8825136612021858,
        "target": [
          0.85,
          0.95
        ],
        "state_floor": 0.75,
        "state_minimum_holdout": 30,
        "eligible_states": [
          "BA",
          "CE",
          "GO",
          "MA",
          "MG",
          "PA",
          "PB",
          "PI",
          "PR",
          "RS",
          "SC",
          "SP"
        ],
        "by_uf": {
          "AC": {
            "municipalities": 5,
            "coverage90": 0.8,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "AL": {
            "municipalities": 19,
            "coverage90": 1.0,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "AM": {
            "municipalities": 13,
            "coverage90": 0.9230769230769231,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "AP": {
            "municipalities": 2,
            "coverage90": 0.5,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "BA": {
            "municipalities": 85,
            "coverage90": 0.8823529411764706,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "CE": {
            "municipalities": 33,
            "coverage90": 0.8484848484848485,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "DF": {
            "municipalities": 1,
            "coverage90": 1.0,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "ES": {
            "municipalities": 19,
            "coverage90": 1.0,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "GO": {
            "municipalities": 45,
            "coverage90": 0.8444444444444444,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "MA": {
            "municipalities": 41,
            "coverage90": 0.8536585365853658,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "MG": {
            "municipalities": 168,
            "coverage90": 0.8809523809523809,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "MS": {
            "municipalities": 13,
            "coverage90": 1.0,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "MT": {
            "municipalities": 24,
            "coverage90": 0.8333333333333334,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "PA": {
            "municipalities": 36,
            "coverage90": 0.8611111111111112,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "PB": {
            "municipalities": 50,
            "coverage90": 0.9,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "PE": {
            "municipalities": 28,
            "coverage90": 0.9285714285714286,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "PI": {
            "municipalities": 45,
            "coverage90": 0.8444444444444444,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "PR": {
            "municipalities": 78,
            "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "RJ": {
            "municipalities": 14,
            "coverage90": 0.9285714285714286,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "RN": {
            "municipalities": 27,
            "coverage90": 0.9259259259259259,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "RO": {
            "municipalities": 14,
            "coverage90": 0.9285714285714286,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "RR": {
            "municipalities": 6,
            "coverage90": 0.6666666666666666,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "RS": {
            "municipalities": 99,
            "coverage90": 0.9090909090909091,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "SC": {
            "municipalities": 55,
            "coverage90": 0.9272727272727272,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "SE": {
            "municipalities": 18,
            "coverage90": 0.9444444444444444,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          },
          "SP": {
            "municipalities": 138,
            "coverage90": 0.8115942028985508,
            "criterion_applicable": true,
            "pass": true
          },
          "TO": {
            "municipalities": 22,
            "coverage90": 0.9090909090909091,
            "criterion_applicable": false,
            "pass": null
          }
        },
        "mean_width90": 0.02778739188328214,
        "reason": "Cobertura preditiva dentro do critério congelado.",
        "mae": 0.006813660057135674,
        "baseline_first_turn_mae": 0.024101081461837037,
        "prediction_unit": "Fração municipal dos votos válidos do segundo turno",
        "uses_only_training_outcomes": true
      },
      "scopes": {
        "national": {
          "observed": [
            {
              "id": "M70",
              "numerator": 87278,
              "denominator": 44701,
              "raw_ratio": 1.952484284467909,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
                "denominator",
                "raw_ratio",
                "ratio_state"
              ]
            },
            {
              "id": "M80",
              "numerator": 35591,
              "denominator": 7059,
              "raw_ratio": 5.041932285026208,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
                "denominator",
                "raw_ratio",
                "ratio_state"
              ]
            },
            {
              "id": "M90",
              "numerator": 6802,
              "denominator": 368,
              "raw_ratio": 18.483695652173914,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
                "denominator",
                "raw_ratio",
                "ratio_state"
              ]
            },
            {
              "id": "M100",
              "numerator": 106,
              "denominator": 4,
              "raw_ratio": 26.5,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
                "denominator",
                "raw_ratio",
                "ratio_state"
              ]
            },
            {
              "id": "V",
              "numerator": 31341,
              "denominator": 555,
              "raw_ratio": 56.47027027027027,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
                "denominator",
                "raw_ratio",
                "ratio_state"
              ]
            },
            {
              "id": "G",
              "numerator": 8886745,
              "denominator": 3546231,
              "raw_ratio": 2.505969013298908,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Ganho líquido de votos Lula, assinado, nas seções com aumento de comparecimento.",
              "context_only_fields": [
                "denominator",
                "raw_ratio",
                "ratio_state"
              ]
            }
          ],
          "metrics": [
            {
              "id": "M70",
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              "B_valid": 4096,
              "raw_frequency": 0.96533203125,
              "estimate": 0.9653404930436905,
              "interval99": [
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              "resolution": 0.000244081034903588,
              "zero_exceedances": false,
              "status": "conditional_exploratory",
              "B_undefined": 0,
              "holm6": 1.0
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            {
              "id": "M80",
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              "B_valid": 4096,
              "raw_frequency": 0.0,
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              "interval99": [
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              "holm6": 0.001464486209421528
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            {
              "id": "M90",
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              "raw_frequency": 0.0,
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              "holm6": 0.001464486209421528
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            {
              "id": "M100",
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              "raw_frequency": 0.0,
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              "interval99": [
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              "status": "conditional_exploratory",
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              "holm6": 0.001464486209421528
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            {
              "id": "V",
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              "B_valid": 4096,
              "raw_frequency": 1.0,
              "estimate": 1.0,
              "interval99": [
                0.9983827718604651,
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            {
              "id": "G",
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              "raw_frequency": 0.099853515625,
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          "joint": {
            "b": 0,
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            "zero_exceedances": true,
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            "B_joint_valid": 4096,
            "B_joint_undefined": 0,
            "definition": "AND dos seis numeradores simulados >= observados, na mesma réplica",
            "label": "Frequência exploratória da configuração; não valor-p global nem probabilidade de fraude"
          },
          "tested_field": "numerator",
          "selection": "exploratory"
        },
        "holdout": {
          "observed": [
            {
              "id": "M70",
              "numerator": 16745,
              "denominator": 9308,
              "raw_ratio": 1.798990116029222,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
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            {
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              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
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            {
              "id": "M90",
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              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
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            {
              "id": "M100",
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              "ratio_state": "positive_infinity",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
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            },
            {
              "id": "V",
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              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Quantidade de seções favoráveis a Lula neste indicador.",
              "context_only_fields": [
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              "denominator": 783473,
              "raw_ratio": 2.5413613487637736,
              "ratio_state": "finite",
              "interpretation": "Ganho líquido de votos Lula, assinado, nas seções com aumento de comparecimento.",
              "context_only_fields": [
                "denominator",
                "raw_ratio",
                "ratio_state"
              ]
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          ],
          "metrics": [
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          "selection": "exploratory"
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    },
    {
      "id": "municipal_blocks",
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        "pass": true,
        "municipalities": 1098,
        "coverage90": 0.8633879781420765,
        "target": [
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        "state_floor": 0.75,
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        "eligible_states": [
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        "by_uf": {
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            "municipalities": 5,
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          "AL": {
            "municipalities": 19,
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            "municipalities": 13,
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            "municipalities": 2,
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            "municipalities": 85,
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            "municipalities": 33,
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            "municipalities": 1,
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            "municipalities": 19,
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            "municipalities": 45,
            "coverage90": 0.8666666666666667,
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          "MA": {
            "municipalities": 41,
            "coverage90": 0.8292682926829268,
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          "MG": {
            "municipalities": 168,
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            "municipalities": 13,
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          "MT": {
            "municipalities": 24,
            "coverage90": 0.7916666666666666,
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          "PA": {
            "municipalities": 36,
            "coverage90": 0.8055555555555556,
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          "PB": {
            "municipalities": 50,
            "coverage90": 0.94,
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          "PE": {
            "municipalities": 28,
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          "PI": {
            "municipalities": 45,
            "coverage90": 0.8888888888888888,
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          "PR": {
            "municipalities": 78,
            "coverage90": 0.8717948717948718,
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          "RJ": {
            "municipalities": 14,
            "coverage90": 0.7857142857142857,
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          "RN": {
            "municipalities": 27,
            "coverage90": 0.8888888888888888,
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          "RO": {
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